RCIF II - Five bullet Friday - Issue # 25

      Crypto market sentiment has improved slightly over the last week. Bitcoin has the most name recognition from the general public even though most of the developers are working on building on Ethereum. Bitcoin's market sentiment is negative and it is dragging down the DeFi market even though its fundamentals are improving.

1. After the recent drop,  Bitcoin's 200-day moving average is at $44,666. Historically, it is very rare for bitcoin to go to 0.6 times the 200-day moving average to the market price. It is already 2-standard deviations away from the mean. Recently this ratio came down to 0.66, which it did not hit even during the 2019 downturn. Usually the mean value for this is closer to 1.45.

2. I don't know if any of you have noticed, but S&P 500 has hit an all-time high for the 40th time this year. Shiller P/E ratio takes the average earnings for the past 10 years, evening out the variation in a company's earnings. This ratio is now at 38.73, which is only 2 points away from the December 1999 dot.com boom time. This asset-bubble cannot happen in the middle of a pandemic without the money printing of the Federal Reserve.

3. We have added to our position in Axie Infinity (AXS) last week as well. Please note that this token is not yet integrated with Zapper portfolio. It shows in our Debank portfolio. Axie has generated a revenue of $30 million in just one week. They have not enabled staking yet, but I am collecting the coins in the hope of staking them in 2 months from now.

4. OHM has become the largest staking income generator in our portfolio. As you can see from our Retained Earnings spreadsheet, we purchased 9158 tokens, which increased to 31,100 OHM tokens as of today.  Olympus DAO treasury has been growing steadily over $50 million in just 3 months. It is simply amazing that the protocol owns 99.2% of the Sushi pool and this liquidity is locked forever.

5. I am amazed at the growth rate of Axie Infinity. The total number of active users went up by 100,000 in just one week to 350,000 users. Play-to-earn is a new model where more than 90% of the player earnings can be converted into fiat money. Instead of Web 2.0 games, where all the profits are going to the centralized companies like Take Two etc, these blockchain games are lifting people out of poverty. This video explains how this game is lifting people from poverty.

As the popular investing maxim says, "be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful". Now the entire market is fearful. For long-term investors this is the time to be greedy.

Have a wonderful weekend!

Sam Ikkurty